Macroeconomic development
The global economy proved remarkably resilient in 2025, despite high political uncertainty and increased trade barriers. Economic activity remained robust on the back of advanced production and trade flows, high investments in data centers and artificial intelligence (AI), and supportive fiscal policy measures, as well as easing in the monetary policy environment following cuts in base rates. Nevertheless, growth in global trade slowed in the reporting year. Higher import tariffs are likely to gradually be reflected in higher consumer prices, thereby dampening the development of consumption and business investment. Labor markets remained robust overall, despite initial signs of slowing. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global GDP growth for 2025 of 3.3 %, same as in 2024.
In the United States, the rate of growth has let up following the exceptionally strong years of 2023 and 2024. For 2025, real GDP growth of 2.1 % is expected. Higher U.S. tariffs are making imports more expensive and dampening consumer confidence, but without breaking the economy. The push for technological modernization – in particular by investing in data centers, digital infrastructure, and AI applications – remains a cornerstone of economic development. Inflation picked up again in the second half of 2025.
In Europe, the tentative recovery in economic output continued in 2025. The European Commission expects growth of 1.4 % for the European Union (EU). Inflation continues to move towards monetary policy targets. Our core European countries saw mixed development in 2025: In Poland and Croatia, robust consumer spending and sustained high investments drove above-average growth. In Austria, however, growth remained subdued, while Hungary continues to experience high inflation and low growth. Greece continued on its trajectory of recovery on the back of investments and exports. From the point of view of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), technological progress is acting as a growth driver across Europe, but its potential is limited by regulatory frameworks that inhibit growth and by fragmented markets.
The German economy is undergoing profound structural change, shaped by geopolitical upheaval, demographic shifts, decarbonization, and digitalization. Germany is particularly hard hit by this change since the manufacturing industry is of huge significance to the overall economy and demographic change is particularly pronounced. Against this backdrop, the economy is expected to more or less stagnate in the reporting year, with growth of 0.2 %. The Bitkom-ifo-Digitalindex, which reflects the business climate in the digital sector in Germany, dropped slightly over the course of the reporting year from minus 2.9 points in January to minus 3.8 points in December, but remains at a significantly higher level than the ifo Business Climate Index for Germany, which was at minus 8.5 points in December 2025.
A broad-based revival in private consumption could contribute to a moderate economic recovery in the year ahead. At the same time, the build-out of data centers and AI infrastructure is already driving short-term demand, especially in the United States, while the effects in Europe have been more moderate so far. In the medium term, progressing digital transformation and more widespread use of artificial intelligence are likely to boost productivity growth. However, the economic outlook remains subject to significant downside risks. The telecommunications industry has so far proven to be relatively resilient in the face of economic fluctuations.
For further information on economic outlook, please refer to the section “Forecast.”
For further information about the risks and opportunities relating to the macroeconomic environment, please refer to the section “Risk and opportunity management.”
The following table shows the GDP growth rates and the change in harmonized consumer prices in our most important markets.