Expectations for the Group
Expectations up to 2027. We expect profitable growth to continue over the next two years. This will provide a sound basis for achieving our financial ambitions – as communicated at our Capital Markets Day in October 2024.
We expect our financial performance indicators to develop as follows in 2026 and 2027 on an organic basis, i.e., on a like-for-like basis with the prior year:
- We expect revenue to increase both in 2026 and in 2027 on the back of the positive development of service revenue. The primary driver of this trend will be the United States operating segment, where we likewise expect revenue to grow in both 2026 and 2027. We expect revenue in the Germany and Europe operating segments to increase slightly in both 2026 and 2027.
- Service revenue is projected to increase in both 2026 and 2027. This trend will be influenced by the growth expected in the United States operating segment for 2026 and 2027. In the Germany and Europe operating segments, we expect a slight increase in both 2026 and in 2027.
- Adjusted EBITDA AL is expected to increase substantially in 2026 to around EUR 47.4 billion and to rise sharply again in 2027. In particular, the favorable revenue trend and the realization of efficiency measures will have a positive impact.
- We anticipate an increase in profit/loss from operations (EBIT) in 2026 followed by a sharp increase in 2027. Expected EBIT will benefit overall from the trend in adjusted EBITDA AL. Nevertheless, the 2026 financial year will be adversely affected in particular by integration costs recognized as special factors in connection with the UScellular Acquisition.
- We expect a moderate decline in ROCE in 2026, followed by a strong increase in 2027. The initial moderate decrease is due to non-recurring positive effects from 2025, such as the reversals of impairment losses on the carrying amounts of the investments in GD Towers and GlasfaserPlus. The integration costs recognized as special factors in connection with the UScellular Acquisition will also have a negative impact in 2026. We expect to achieve our target for ROCE to be higher than the expected weighted average cost of capital (WACC) for future years.
- Our investments – measured in terms of cash capex (before spectrum investment) – are expected to amount to around EUR 17.0 billion in 2026. Cash capex (before spectrum investment) is anticipated to decline in 2027 as we come to the end of a heightened investment phase, mainly in connection with the integration of UScellular. We want to continue investing heavily in building out our network infrastructure in Germany, the United States, and Europe in order to safeguard our technology leadership in the long term.
- Free cash flow AL (before dividend payments and spectrum investment) is expected to reach around EUR 19.8 billion in 2026. We anticipate a sharp rise in free cash flow AL in 2027, due to sound operational development and the decline in cash capex (before spectrum investment).
- At the end of 2025, we had the following ratings: BBB+ with a positive outlook (Standard & Poor’s); BBB+ with a stable outlook (Fitch); and A3 with a stable outlook (Moody’s). Maintaining an investment grade rating within the A- to BBB range will enable us to retain undisputed access to the international capital markets and is thus a key component of our finance strategy.
- We are anticipating earnings per share (adjusted for special factors) of around EUR 2.20 in 2026, based on the sound expected business development. We expect to see adjusted earnings per share increase sharply in 2027.
Our debt issuance program puts us in a position to place issues in the international capital markets at short notice. T‑Mobile US is being refinanced primarily in the form of senior unsecured notes. We can also issue short-term papers in the money market through our Deutsche Telekom and T‑Mobile US commercial paper programs.
Bonds and other financial liabilities in the total amount of EUR 6.6 billion and EUR 8.3 billion will fall due for repayment in 2026 and 2027, respectively, of which around EUR 4.4 billion and EUR 4.8 billion, respectively, relate to T‑Mobile US. A number of T‑Mobile US bonds include issuer termination rights. If the premature termination and refinancing of these bonds result in economic gains, this could give rise to further refinancing requirements. We plan to issue new bonds in various currencies. The exact financing transactions will depend on developments in the international finance markets. We also intend to cover part of our liquidity requirements by issuing commercial paper. In order to cover part of the refinancing needs in 2026, T‑Mobile US issued bonds in January 2026 with a volume of USD 2.0 billion.
We want to continue leveraging economies of scale and synergies through suitable partnerships or appropriate acquisitions in our footprint markets. There are no plans, however, to expand into emerging markets. We will continue to subject our existing partnerships and equity investments to regular strategic reassessments with a view to maximizing the value of our Company.
If the economic situation should deteriorate or any unforeseen state or regulatory interventions arise, the expectations expressed here may change accordingly. Given the level of macroeconomic uncertainty, we also cannot rule out the possibility of deviations.
For further information on the business risks, please refer to the section “Risk and opportunity management.”
The following tables summarize the forecasts for our financial and non-financial performance indicators up to 2027. They assume a comparable consolidated group and constant exchange rates, i.e., an organic basis. In order to create a comparable basis with the forecast period, the results of the 2025 financial year have been adjusted for significant changes in the composition of the Group which have been included in the planning, and for changes in the organizational structure in the pro forma presentation. Thus, the expectations for 2026 are based on the pro forma figures for 2025; expectations for 2027 are based on expectations for 2026. To indicate the intensity and trends of our qualified comparative forecasts, we apply the following aspects: strong decrease, decrease, slight decrease, stable trend, slight increase, increase, strong increase.
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Results |
Pro forma |
Expectations |
Expectations |
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Revenue |
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Group |
billions of € |
119.1 |
120.9 |
increase |
increase |
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Germany |
billions of € |
25.6 |
25.6 |
slight increase |
slight increase |
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United States (in local currency) |
billions of $ |
88.2 |
90.3 |
increase |
increase |
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Europe |
billions of € |
12.7 |
12.5 |
slight increase |
slight increase |
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Systems Solutions |
billions of € |
4.1 |
4.1 |
increase |
increase |
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Service revenue |
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Group |
billions of € |
99.4 |
101.1 |
increase |
increase |
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Germany |
billions of € |
22.7 |
22.7 |
slight increase |
slight increase |
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United States (in local currency) |
billions of $ |
71.3 |
73.3 |
increase |
increase |
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Europe |
billions of € |
10.6 |
10.5 |
slight increase |
slight increase |
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Systems Solutions |
billions of € |
4.1 |
4.1 |
increase |
increase |
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EBITDA AL (adjusted for special factors) |
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Group |
billions of € |
44.2 |
44.7 |
47.4 |
strong increase |
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Germany |
billions of € |
10.7 |
10.7 |
11.0 |
increase |
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United States (in local currency) |
billions of $ |
33.0 |
33.5 |
36.2 |
strong increase |
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Europe |
billions of € |
4.7 |
4.7 |
4.8 |
increase |
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Systems Solutions |
billions of € |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
increase |
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Profit (loss) from operations (EBIT) |
billions of € |
24.8 |
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increase |
strong increase |
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ROCE |
% |
7.5 |
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slight decrease |
strong increase |
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Group |
billions of € |
(16.9) |
(17.4) |
17.0 |
decrease |
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Germany |
billions of € |
(4.9) |
(4.9) |
slight increase |
slight increase |
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United States (in local currency) |
billions of $ |
(10.1) |
(10.7) |
decrease |
decrease |
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Europe |
billions of € |
(2.0) |
(2.0) |
stable trend |
stable trend |
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Systems Solutions |
billions of € |
(0.2) |
(0.2) |
stable trend |
stable trend |
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Free cash flow AL (before dividend payments and spectrum investment)c,d |
billions of € |
19.5 |
19.3 |
19.8 |
strong increase |
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Rating |
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Standard & Poor’s, Fitch |
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BBB+ |
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from A- to BBB |
from A- to BBB |
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Moody’s |
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A3 |
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from A3 to Baa2 |
from A3 to Baa2 |
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Other |
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€ |
1.00 |
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Dividend payout ratio of 40 to 60 % of EPS (adjusted for special factors) |
Dividend payout ratio of 40 to 60 % of EPS (adjusted for special factors) |
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Earnings per share (adjusted for special factors) |
€ |
2.00 |
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2.20 |
strong increase |
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Equity ratio |
% |
31.8 |
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25 to 35 |
25 to 35 |
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Relative debt |
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2.62x |
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≤ 2.75x |
≤ 2.75x |
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For further information on the expected development of the financial performance indicators of our operating segments, please refer to the section “Market expectations and expectations for the operating segments.”
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Results |
Pro forma |
Expectations |
Expectations |
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Sustainability |
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81.3 |
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stable trend |
stable trend |
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Employee satisfaction (engagement score)b |
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77 |
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stable trend |
stable trend |
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Energy consumptionc |
GWh |
11,957 |
11,957 |
slight increase |
slight increase |
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Of which: Deutsche Telekom excluding T‑Mobile US |
GWh |
4,432 |
4,432 |
stable trend |
stable trend |
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CO2 emissions (Scope 1 and 2)d |
kt CO2e |
240 |
240 |
decrease |
decrease |
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Of which: Deutsche Telekom excluding T‑Mobile US |
kt CO2e |
154 |
154 |
decrease |
decrease |
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Fixed-network and mobile customers |
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Germany |
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Mobile customers |
millions |
74.5 |
74.5 |
increase |
increase |
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Fixed-network lines |
millions |
16.8 |
16.8 |
slight decrease |
stable trend |
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Retail broadband lines |
millions |
15.1 |
15.1 |
stable trend |
slight increase |
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Television (IPTV, satellite) |
millions |
4.7 |
4.7 |
stable trend |
slight increase |
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United States |
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Postpaid accountse |
millions |
34.2 |
34.2 |
increase |
increase |
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Europe |
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Mobile customers |
millions |
47.2 |
47.2 |
slight increase |
slight increase |
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Fixed-network lines |
millions |
8.0 |
8.0 |
stable trend |
stable trend |
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Broadband customers |
millions |
7.4 |
7.4 |
increase |
increase |
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Television (IPTV, satellite, cable) |
millions |
4.5 |
4.5 |
increase |
increase |
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Systems Solutions |
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Order entry |
billions of € |
4.2 |
4.2 |
increase |
increase |
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For further information on the expected development of the non-financial performance indicators of our operating segments, please refer to the section “Market expectations and expectations for the operating segments.”
Our customer satisfaction/retention – which is expressed using the TRI*M index performance indicator – is expected to remain stable in 2026 against the baseline that is already at a very high level in the benchmark and has been recalculated for 2026. The values achieved in particular for our Germany and Systems Solutions operating segments, as well as across most of the Europe operating segment, put us in a leading position relative to the respective benchmarks. With the exception of the Europe operating segment, where our goal is to post slight improvements in isolated areas, we plan to maintain these leading positions in the benchmark for 2026.
Based on the high engagement score of 77 points in 2025, we expect the positive response of our employees regarding satisfaction with our Company to remain stable in the next surveys both in 2026 and 2027.
We expect our energy consumption to increase slightly at Group level in both 2026 and 2027, and to remain stable in the same period for Deutsche Telekom excluding T‑Mobile US. In both 2026 and 2027, we expect CO2 emissions (Scope 1 and 2) to decline both at Group level and excluding T‑Mobile US. Since 2021, 100 % of the electricity requirements for all Group units have been met from renewable sources. As such, the majority of emissions have been eliminated.
For further information on our ESG KPIs, please refer to the section “Combined sustainability statement.”
Our planning is based on the following exchange rates:
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Currency |
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Exchange rate |
|---|---|---|
Polish zloty |
PLN |
4.24 |
Czech koruna |
CZK |
24.68 |
Hungarian forint |
HUF |
397.48 |
U.S. dollar |
USD |
1.13 |
Expectations for Deutsche Telekom AG
The development of business at Deutsche Telekom AG, the Group’s parent company, is reflected particularly in the profits/losses from profit transfer agreements with domestic Group companies, other income from subsidiaries, and from associated and related companies, and through its supplier, service, and financial relationships with the Group companies. In other words, the course of business of our Group companies and their results from operations are key factors shaping the future development of Deutsche Telekom AG’s figures.
The underlying expectations concerning the operating segments’ expected revenue and earnings have an impact on the development of Deutsche Telekom AG’s future net income. Factors such as strong competition, ongoing technological developments, regulatory intervention, and market and economic expectations have a major influence on these expectations. Furthermore, net income can be affected by the use of hidden reserves in the course of making changes to the investment structure or as a result of dividends and capital repayments by Group companies.
As in 2024, from the 2025 financial year – subject to approval by the relevant bodies and the fulfillment of other legal requirements – the amount of the dividend is based on a dividend payout ratio of 40 to 60 % of adjusted earnings per share, with a lower limit fixed at EUR 0.60 per dividend-bearing share. This approach is in line with our finance strategy. For the 2025 financial year, we propose a dividend of EUR 1.00 (prior year: EUR 0.90) for each dividend-bearing share.
Deutsche Telekom AG’s unappropriated net income declined in the financial year to EUR 28.0 billion (prior year: EUR 29.1 billion) in line with the forecast made in the prior year. Taking into account the proposed dividend payments totaling EUR 4.8 billion (prior year: EUR 4.4 billion) in 2026 for the 2025 financial year and assuming no significant changes to the contributions of Group companies to earnings as the basis for Deutsche Telekom AG’s net income, we expect a decline in unappropriated net income in 2026, mainly due to unappropriated net income carried forward of EUR 23.1 billion. For the 2026 financial year, we expect an unappropriated net income that will allow the distribution of a dividend of 40 to 60 % of adjusted earnings per share, which is in line with our finance strategy through 2027.