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Economic outlook

In its economic forecast from January 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects global economic growth of 4.4 % in 2022. We also expect the economic recovery to continue in our core markets. The delivery and capacity bottlenecks are expected to gradually ease in 2022 and to decline in importance. Inflation rates are likely to slow down in 2022, when key special factors such as the rise in prices for raw materials and energy are no longer included in the year-on-year comparison. Eastern European countries in particular are also set to benefit in 2022 from the first disbursements from the Recovery and Resilience Facility, the central pillar of the NextGenerationEU recovery fund.

Forecast on the development of GDP and the unemployment/non-employment rates in our core markets for 2022 and 2023

%

 

 

 

 

 

GDP for 2022 compared
with 2021

GDP for 2023 compared
with 2022

Unemployment/
non-employment rate
in 2022

Unemployment/
non-employment rate
in 2023

Germany

3.8

2.5

5.2

5.0

United States

4.0

2.6

4.2

4.0

Greece

5.2

3.6

15.0

14.5

Romania

5.1

5.2

4.8

4.5

Hungary

5.4

3.2

3.1

2.9

Poland

4.6

3.7

3.1

3.0

Czech Republic

4.4

3.2

2.6

2.4

Croatia

5.6

3.4

6.2

5.8

Slovakia

5.3

4.3

6.4

5.6

Austria

4.9

1.9

4.6

4.5

Source: International Monetary Fund, European Commission, HSBC; last revised: January 2022.

The unemployment rate for Germany and the non-employment rates for the other countries are presented in conformance with ILO standards.