Forecast
The statements in this section reflect the current views of our management. In contrast to the forecasts published in our previous reports, we now expect adjusted EBITDA AL and free cash flow AL to develop better than expected.
Our original guidance in the 2025 combined management report (2025 Annual Report) was set at around EUR 47.4 billion for adjusted EBITDA AL and around EUR 19.8 billion for free cash flow AL. In the updated forecast for the 2026 financial year, published in the Interim Group Report as of June 30, 2026, we raised these levels to around EUR 47.5 billion for adjusted EBITDA AL and around EUR 20.0 billion for free cash flow AL. We now expect adjusted EBITDA AL for the Group to come in at around EUR 47.6 billion. This is largely attributable to the stronger-than-expected development of adjusted EBITDA AL in the United States operating segment, which we now anticipate at USD 36.4 billion, up from both the revised figure of USD 36.3 billion and the original guidance of USD 36.2 billion. We now expect to post free cash flow AL of around EUR 20.1 billion. A key factor driving this positive development is higher-than-expected net cash provided by operating activities in the United States operating segment.
All other statements made remain valid. Our planning assumes an unchanged U.S. dollar exchange rate of USD 1.13.
Changes in the business risks are presented in the section “Risks and opportunities.” For additional information and recent changes in the economic situation, please refer to the section “The economic environment.” Readers are also referred to the “Disclaimer” at the end of this report.