Macroeconomic development
Despite considerable geopolitical challenges, the global economy developed robustly over the first three quarters of 2026, buoyed by continued strong investment in technology and in particular artificial intelligence (AI). However, the intensification of the conflict in the Middle East has had a detrimental impact on the macroeconomic conditions, resulting in rising energy and commodity prices, growing inflation risks, more volatile financial and commodity markets, and mounting risks for global supply chains. On international bond markets, inflation concerns and high levels of government debt in major economies in the third quarter of 2026 have led to significant increases in returns in some cases. In the latest World Economic Outlook from October 2026, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports that the global economy remains resilient, bolstered in large part by the technology-driven investment boom.
The United States economy held strong. Real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at an annual rate of 2.2 % in the second quarter of 2026, compared to 2.5 % in the first quarter. Consumer spending and investments, in particular technology-driven investments, remained the core engine of the economy. At the same time, prices continued to soar, with consumer prices up 3.7 % in September 2026 from a year earlier. The U.S. Federal Reserve raised the target range of the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in mid-September 2026.
The eurozone economy gained momentum. GDP expanded 0.6 % year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026 following a period of stagnation in economic output at the start of the year. Employment likewise continued its moderate uptrend. At the same time, inflation accelerated to 3.8 % in September 2026 according to preliminary data, mainly due to the surge in energy prices. The European Central Bank (ECB) countered by raising its key interest rates by a total of 50 basis points in June and September 2026. Greece’s economic recovery was underpinned by the MSCI decision from March 2026 to reclassify the MSCI Greek Indexes to Developed Market status in May 2027.
In Germany, the economy has begun showing a slight recovery over the year to date. GDP expanded by 0.4 % in the first quarter and by a further 0.3 % in the second quarter of 2026. Stronger exports proved the main driver of expansion, while consumer spending and investments remained restrained. Despite a clear uptick in the ifo Business Climate Index, the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy recently downgraded its GDP forecasting model, BIP Nowcast, hinting at an expected slowdown in growth momentum in the third quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, corporate insolvencies remain at a high level, pointing to enduring pressures in parts of the business sector. Inflation rose from 2.3 % in June 2026 to 3.3 % in September 2026, mainly due to higher energy costs.