Macroeconomic development
The global economy initially demonstrated robust growth in the first half of 2026, buoyed by continued strong investment in technology and in particular artificial intelligence. However, the intensification of the conflict in the Middle East has had a detrimental impact on the macroeconomic conditions, resulting in rising energy and commodity prices, growing inflation risks, more volatile financial and commodity markets, and mounting risks for global supply chains. The International Monetary Fund’s July 2026 update similarly reports a global economy caught between the competing forces of war in the Middle East and a technology-led investment cycle.
Germany’s overall economic development remained restrained in the first half of 2026, although there were some isolated signs of stabilization. GDP expanded by 0.3 % year-on-year in the first quarter. It was a varied picture for the economic indicators over the remainder of the first half of the year. Order entry and industrial output trended upward in May 2026, but the recovery remained fragile and was dampened by geopolitical uncertainty, higher energy prices, and structural pressures. The ifo Business Climate Index rallied slightly in June 2026. Inflation eased again after a rise in spring, falling to 2.3 % in June 2026 according to Destatis figures. At the same time, the insolvency situation remains tense: Data published by Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) for the second quarter of 2026 puts the number of bankruptcies at a 21-year high of 4,996.
The United States economy held strong in the first half of 2026. Real GDP expanded at an annual rate of 2.1 % in the first quarter, driven by investments, exports, government spending, and consumer spending. At the same time, inflation risks picked up once again, with consumer prices in the United States up 3.5 % in June 2026 from a year earlier.
The eurozone continued to experience inconsistent economic development in the first half of 2026. In the first quarter, GDP contracted by 0.2 % year-on-year, while employment increased slightly. Inflation eased again in June 2026 after a rise in spring but, at 2.8 % according to preliminary data, remains above the target set by the European Central Bank (ECB). Greece’s economic recovery was underpinned by the MSCI decision from March 2026 to reclassify the MSCI Greek Indexes to Developed Market status in May 2027.