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Forecast

The statements in this section reflect the current views of our management. Contrary to the forecast published in the 2024 combined management report (2024 Annual Report), we now expect to post higher adjusted EBITDA AL. Adjusted EBITDA AL for full-year 2025 was originally expected to come in at around EUR 44.9 billion. We now expect adjusted EBITDA AL for the Group to come in at around EUR 45.0 billion in the 2025 financial year. This is largely attributable to stronger-than-expected development of adjusted EBITDA AL in the United States operating segment, which we now anticipate at USD 32.4 billion, up from USD 32.3 billion. Due to the increased guidance for adjusted EBITDA AL, we now expect to record free cash flow AL for the Group (before dividend payments and spectrum investment) of around EUR 20.0 billion, up from our previous guidance of around EUR 19.9 billion.

All other statements made remain valid. Our planning assumes an unchanged U.S. dollar exchange rate of USD 1.08.

For more information on the business risks, please refer to the section “Risks and opportunities.” For additional information and recent changes in the economic situation, please refer to the section “The economic environment.” Readers are also referred to the “DisclaimerDisclaimer” at the end of this report.

AL – After Leases
Since the start of the 2019 financial year, we have taken the effects of the first-time application of IFRS 16 “Leases” into account when determining our financial performance indicators. “EBITDA after leases” (EBITDA AL) is calculated by adjusting EBITDA for depreciation of the right-of-use assets and for interest expenses on recognized lease liabilities. When determining “free cash flow after leases” (free cash flow AL), free cash flow is adjusted for the repayment of lease liabilities.
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