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Forecast

The statements in this section reflect the current views of our management. Contrary to the forecasts published in the 2023 combined management report (2023 Annual Report) and the Interim Group Report as of June 30, 2024, we now expect to post higher adjusted EBITDA AL. Adjusted EBITDA AL for full-year 2024 was originally expected to come in at around EUR 42.9 billion. We now expect adjusted EBITDA AL for the Group to come in at around EUR 43.0 billion in the 2024 financial year. This is largely attributable to stronger-than-expected business performance outside of the United States. Here we now expect to post adjusted EBITDA AL of around EUR 14.5 billion, up from the previous guidance of EUR 14.4 billion. We are also raising our guidance for the United States operating segment by USD 50 million, still anticipating adjusted EBITDA AL of around USD 30.9 billion. We expect the Group’s free cash flow AL (before dividend payments and spectrum investment) to come in at the already raised guidance of around EUR 19.0 billion.

All other statements made remain valid. Our planning assumes an unchanged U.S. dollar exchange rate of USD 1.08.

For more information on the business risks, please refer to the section “Risks and opportunities.” For additional information and recent changes in the economic situation, please refer to the section “The economic environment.” Readers are also referred to the “DisclaimerDisclaimer” at the end of this report.

AL – After Leases
Since the start of the 2019 financial year, we have taken the effects of the first-time application of IFRS 16 “Leases” into account when determining our financial performance indicators. “EBITDA after leases” (EBITDA AL) is calculated by adjusting EBITDA for depreciation of the right-of-use assets and for interest expenses on recognized lease liabilities. When determining “free cash flow after leases” (free cash flow AL), free cash flow is adjusted for the repayment of lease liabilities.
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