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Forecast

The statements in this section reflect the current views of our management. Contrary to the forecasts published in the 2021 combined management report (2021 Annual Report, page 120 et seq.), we now expect to post higher adjusted EBITDA AL. Adjusted EBITDA AL for full-year 2022 was originally expected to come in at around EUR 36.5 billion. We now expect adjusted EBITDA AL for the Group to grow to over EUR 36.6 billion in the 2022 financial year. This is largely attributable to stronger-than-expected business performance in the United States operating segment, where we now anticipate adjusted EBITDA AL of around USD 26.6 billion, up from USD 26.4 billion. We also expect to see a corresponding increase in adjusted core EBITDA AL. Due to the increased guidance for adjusted EBITDA AL, we now expect to record free cash flow AL for the Group (before dividend payments and spectrum investment) of over EUR 10 billion, up from our original guidance of around EUR 10 billion. Notwithstanding the current macroeconomic environment, all other published statements remain valid. Our planning assumes a U.S. dollar exchange rate of USD 1.18; financial results for T‑Mobile Netherlands were not included.

For more information on global economic developments and the associated business risks, please refer to the section “Risks and opportunities.” For additional information and recent changes in the economic situation, please refer to the section “The economic environment” in this interim Group management report. Readers are also referred to the DisclaimerDisclaimer at the end of this report.

AL – After Leases
Since the start of the 2019 financial year, we have taken the effects of the first-time application of IFRS 16 “Leases” into account when determining our financial performance indicators. “EBITDA after leases” (EBITDA AL) is calculated by adjusting EBITDA for depreciation of the right-of-use assets and for interest expenses on recognized lease liabilities. When determining “free cash flow after leases” (free cash flow AL), free cash flow is adjusted for the repayment of lease liabilities.
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